It is the district championship round and most of these teams, barring Covid-19 regular season cancellations, have already seen the other this year. That doesn’t mean what happened regular season will repeat. We focus here on five games upcoming in round 2. Those games are Paintsville at Raceland, Owensboro Catholic at Hancock County, Hopkinsville at Logan, Bowling Green at South Warren, and McCracken at Henderson.
For these games, we will recap the regular season matchup and how or why that game resulted as it did. Then we will tell you what we believe happens “This time around.”
Paintsville at Raceland:
Regular season: October 23, Raceland won at home 23-20. Really could see this one going either way. Both programs have made deep runs in the playoffs before and both are considered elite programs at the classification of play. Last time out, Jacob Heighton for Raceland threw a TD pass but also threw 3-picks. Paintsville also won the ground game, but it was close (Paintsville 165-yards rushing to Raceland’s 145). We believe the two FG kickers, Peyton Ison (Raceland) and Braydon Combs (Paintsville) may factor prominently here. That may come by the way of made or missed field goals or it may come in the way of converted versus missed PATs.
This time around: We like Paintsville by 7-points
Owensboro Catholic at Hancock County:
Regular season: October 16, Hancock won in Owensboro 30-29. Last time out, this game was anyone’s and the final score reflected that. If Lincoln Clancy can make better decisions with the football (2-picks last time out) and if the Aces can get the running game uncorked while defending against the run much more effectively (rushed for 83-yards while allowing 300) this outcome should turn around significantly. If you look at the turnover margin and run differential, it is hard to believe the two teams were only one-point apart on the scoreboard last time the game was played. There is something to be said about, “having been there before” and O. Cath. is the team which has been there many more times than Hancock County.
This time around: We like Owensboro Catholic by 14
Hopkinsville High School at Logan County:
Regular season: October 16, Logan won in Russellville 31-7. Pretty easy to see where Hopkinsville went wrong in the meeting the 16th in Russellville. QB, Trey Jefferson had a tough night completing 5 of 22 passing attempts for 72-yards with 3-interceptions. Superstar, All-Stater and “Mr. Football” candidate, Reece Jesse, Jr. had 2 receptions for 24-yards. The most glaring stat, which sort of jumps out at you, is the 410-yards of rushing the Tiger defense allowed that night while rushing for only 41. If they have that type of disproportion again, then Hopkinsville is beat, right now. Hopkinsville has resurged late in the year with changing up the offense to more of a quick-strike, play action game and Jayden Dillard (RB, 2022) is beginning to run more down-hill. We believe this game will be different.
This time around: We like Hopkinsville by 4
Bowling Green Senior at South Warren:
Regular Season: October 2, South Warren won at BG 10-7. Javeius Bunton was held to 77 yards rushing on 22-carries and a lone TD when the teams last met and FBS, Power 5 prospect, Jordan Dingle, caught an uninspiring 3-passes for 49-receiving yards. Both of these prime-time Purples will have to show up Friday night if the result is expected to be different this second time around. This is an interesting matchup largely owing to the fact both teams regularly play and compete in the same city. Both of these teams are historically among the best teams at this level of play and both coaching staffs “have been here before” many, many times. Both teams have Division-I college talent dotting the roster and wearing their respective colors. If one could pick a second round game to attend, this is the one we might recommend. This game will turn on which of the two, evenly matched teams makes the fewest mistakes.
This time around: The Purples turn the table on South Warren. BG by 3
McCracken County at Henderson County:
Regular season: October 23, Henderson won in Paducah 21-14. McCracken’s Marc Clark is thought of as an offensive guru in Kentucky coaching circles. He also used to be known for the 2nd round phase-out, a label he threw off just last season. When last these two met, Henderson rushed for 222 yards while allowing McCracken to gain 147 on the ground. McCracken couldn’t get its passing game uncorked, at all, in that one, only throwing for 64 yards. That is a very uncharacteristically low throwing output for a Marc Clark coached team. If we were Henderson, we wouldn’t count on that happening this coming Friday. McCracken will have to click much better offensively than it missed during the regular season if it wants to upend the Colonels this Friday night. We expect the Mustangs will look like a different club this go-around.
This time around: This time around, we like McCracken by 6
This is Coach HB Lyon, reporting for KPGFootball, and we’re JUST CALLING IT LIKE WE SEE IT!
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