Maybe the toughest game of the season; presents big opportunity
These two teams are coming at this weekend’s game coming off very different experiences. Central was able to beat Trigg on Morton’s Gap. Hancock County got run off the field in its game with Union County. The odds look pretty long for our Storm, and the fact the Hornets will be all stirred up may not be a plus. Still, we have seen this year, more than any other, that anyone, on any given night, can win a football game. Will this week’s game be our night? Here’s for hoping.
HB Lyon, Scouting Director, “KPGFootball”
Lewisport, KY: I never could figure out when I was still circulating, on different coaching staffs bouncing around the middle and high school ranks, whether it was better or worse to catch a team coming off a win or a loss. I was pretty sure catching a team coming off a disaster was equally a trick bag.
There is the school of thought a team having been just humiliated is likely to play ever harder the next game to avoid it becoming an epidemic. Then there is the school of thought that a loss like that makes a player look in the mirror and experience some self-doubt creeping into the picture.
Both of these teams could stand to win this game. Hancock to feel like last week was a “fluke;” Central to further insure the playoffs include the Storm at the tail end of this season.
We are going to take a look at this matchup and attempt to pick its winner. We are well over 80% this season, so perhaps you should listen to us.
Scouting the Hornets
Hancock County, nothing makes a team feel more human than getting smoked 49-7, regardless of the team’s won-loss record coming into the night. Still, Hancock will enter the night 7-1 and they are at home. This is a dangerous encounter for our Storm and they better be ready to see the Hornets’ very best effort.
Dylan Morris (’25), QB, has been killing it all year, but he had a tough outing against the Braves from Union County. Morris was held to only 100-yards of passing and a TD against a pick.
Brady Eubanks (’27) led a paltry 95-yards rushing effort with 22-yards on 6-carries.
Jaxson Morris (’25) scored 6-points which, together with Uziel Mungia’s (’28) 1-1 on PATs comprised the scoring.
Ross Powers (’26) paced the defense with 10-stops.
Let’s look at The Storm
Against Trigg, Zayden Parker (’25) rushed 23-times for 132-yards and a pair of scores.
Silas Gunn (’26) has continued his “hot play” and he has become downright efficient under center for Central. Against the Wildcats, Gunn was 12 for 15 for 126-yards and 3-TDs. The “dual threat” Gunn also ran the football seven (7) times for 50-yards. Gunn’s play on defense continued to be stellar as the versatile star had another fine defensive showing. Gunn led the team with 14-tackles.
Isaac Manning (’25, pictured) has continued to demonstrate his own two-way prowess. Manning registered eight (8) tackles, 1-TFL, and a FF. Manning is an omnipresent threat to take the top off a defense from his receiver post.
Carlos Mason (’25), an OL/DL two way star was solid all night along the offensive front against Trigg County and had 12-tackles, 1-TFL to show for his defensive efforts.
Isaac Earl (’26) continued to demonstrate his being one of the more versatile and productive skill sets on the Storm’s roster. Earl had two (2) rushing TDs, two (2) receiving TDs, caught eight (8) balls for 74-yards and ran the ball 10-times for 82-yards. Earl recovered a fumble on defense.
Common district opponent
Both teams have played Webster County, Central won 29-0; Hancock won 59-0. Both teams have played McLean, Central lost 48-46 in OT; Hancock won 21-0. Both teams have played Trigg County. Central beat Trigg, 42-37; Hancock beat the Wildcats, 64-19.
Consulting the experts
The oldest ratings index in all of Kentucky is the DRI (Durden Ratings Index). The DRI stacked up against calpreps.com in this past week’s games pretty well. Against the calpreps spread, the DRI went 41-24-3. In head-to-head games, in which calpreps had one team favored and the DRI had the opponent favored, the DRI went 6-2. We use both indexes.
According to the DRI, Hopkins County Central (3-5, 2-2) has an index score of 42.833333 ad infinitem. Hancock County (7-1, 3-1) has an index rating of 73.6).
We have also consulted our index back at the office. We have the game as Hancock giving Central 20-points with an 88% chance of winning. Still, Central has a 22% chance of winning, and anything can happen on a Friday night.
Last Year’s Game
Last year’s game was a 30-20 game which was closer than a double digit point differential would suggest. It was won by the visiting Hancock County Hornets. Central was in last year’s game, but the game was played on Morton’s Gap and not in Lewisport, KY, a very tough place to play.
Our Call
We believe the Hornets may win; but, it will be more like a 12-14 point margin, and not the 20-point difference our algorithm suggests
This is Friday Night Fletch, reporting for KPGFootball, reminding you to PLAY THROUGH THE WHISTLE!
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