Report Card: The post-game grade on our ‘Dirty Dozen’ picks… @minguabeefjerky @PrepSpin @KyHighSchool @1776Bank @PrepSpin @MaxPreps

We were 11-1 three weeks ago. We were 11-1 last week. We were 11-1 this week. We’re consistent if nothing else.

In “Report Card,” we will look at the results from around Kentucky and see on which games we missed and on which games we hit. We will also see how close we came in predicting the actual score or margin or both.

Here is this week’s “Report Card” from last night’s football games. Let’s see how we did.

Game one: Muhlenberg County (1-5, 5A) at Owensboro (5-1, 5A)

Why would Owensboro (Senior) High schedule this game? Have to play them. Both teams are in the first district. 

Owensboro hasn’t slowed a single beat since Wimsatt’s departure for college. One area coach told me it almost made the Red Devils harder to play. Owensboro will beat Muhlenberg as badly as it wants. 

KPG Football’s prediction: Owensboro 62, Muhlenberg County 0

How we did: As you can see, anytime the predicted margin is 62-points, it is difficult to hit that number. Why? We don’t know what’s going to happen once the winning team’s JV hits the field.

We thought the Red Devils would win by 62. Well, they won 65-13.

We came really close to hitting one of the numbers dead on the head of the nail. 1-0.

Game two: Morgan County (3-3, Class 2A) at Breathitt (0-5, Class 2A)

Many people in 2A are scratching their heads wondering what in the world is wrong with Breathitt. No team has been hit as hard by the pandemic than these guys. One of their five losses was a COVID-cancellation.

Breathitt could have beaten Perry County, were in the game for at least a half with North Laurel with a 4th-teamer under center, and played with Dunbar well into the 4th-Q. Breathitt enter the game winless and Morgan’s Jordan Sexton may be the best RB in the district.

We like the Bobcats at home on the Riverbank here. 

KPG Football’s prediction: Breathitt County 42, Morgan County 27

How we did: Breathitt won this game 48-8. Again, this is a large margin game and those are hard to hit.

The opening kickoff, Breathitt scooped and scored a fumble by Morgan’s kick-return team. Otherwise, we come close to hitting the Bobcat’s number dead-on.

Breathitt demonstrated more defense than we thought them capable and one of our owners is a big, Bobcat fan. This win ended up being a 40-point margin. We thought Breathitt would win by 15.

Look out Knott, the old boys down on the Riverbank may not be quite dead yet! 2-0.

Game three: Rockcastle (4-2, Class 3A) at Bell (4-1, Class 3A)

The Rock, as they are called, are a scrappy bunch and we have seen some mighty good teams come from there. Dudley Hilton, Bell’s head man, is the second winningest football coach in KHSAA history. Hilton will add to the win total, we think anyway.

KPG Football’s prediction: Bell County 27, Rockcastle County 17

How we did: We called Bell County winning the game by 10 with a score of 27-17. Instead, Bell County won the game 24-0. 3-0.

Game four: Hancock County (4-2, Class 2A) at Butler (4-1, Class 2A)

What in the world is Butler County doing leading the pack in the 2nd-district? Don’t they know that district is property of Owensboro Catholic? Well someone forgot to sent Butler that memo. 

We can remember years where Butler, a historical doormat in the district, wouldn’t have expected to come within 50 of Hancock. My how times have changed. 

KPG Football’s prediction: Butler County 21, Hancock County 19

How we did: Butler County in a normal year is getting blown completely out by Hancock County. This year has been anything but normal.

We went out on a limb in picking Butler over Hancock and those boys almost pulled it off. The score was tied at 22 the end of regulation and our seeing it 21-19 in Butler’s favor was just a few points off dead-center.

Hancock pulled it out 28-22 in overtime. 3-1.

Game five: Mayfield (6-0, Class 2A) at Caldwell (4-2, Class 2A)

When Caldwell joined Mayfield and Murray’s district, we were assured by Caldwell assistants they would have no problem competing with Mayfield and Murray at all. We haven’t seen that yet. 

We have to say this is one of 2A’s toughest districts. Caldwell is very well coached and has improved every week since dropping its opener to a terrible Christian County Colonel squad. 

They haven’t improved sufficiently to play with “mighty Mayfield.”

KPG Football’s prediction: Mayfield 34, Caldwell County 0

How we did: Caldwell had been playing much better than the team which lost to Christian County in the season opener. Yeah, the Colonels are 5A but they are also terrible. The Colonels have been blown-out every week since beating the Tigers from Princeton by three touchdowns to start the season.

Caldwell rebounded after losing to Christian County to beat North-Hopkins, Crittenden County and Union County. Though Caldwell is improving, “Mighty Mayfield” looked all the way back to us.

Mayfield made easy work of Graves County (5A), Hoptown (4A), and McCracken County (6A), together with an impressive win against an athletic Tilghman team. We thought Mayfield would beat Caldwell 34-0.

We got close on Mayfield’s number, as they scored 35 against Caldwell. Caldwell tallied 16-points. Like we said before in this article, no accounting for the cosmetic TDs the JV surrenders. 4-1.

Game six: Hopkinsville (2-4, Class 4A) at Madisonville-North Hopkins (2-4, Class 4A)

I have a friend in Madisonville, Kentucky who works as a scout for us in the area. This guy is the best scout we have ever had at KPGFootball. You can set your watch by this guy’s information and analysis.

Before writing this article, we called him and asked, “Can North beat Hoptown this weekend?” His answer was perfunctory but brilliant in its brevity. 

“Nope,” he answered. Good enough for us.

KPG Football’s prediction: Hoptown 28, Madisonville North-Hopkins 14

Much like the Breathitt game, Hoptown is a team hard to figure. We knew they would beat North Hopkins. We didn’t know they would embarrass North-Hopkins. We don’t know from where that 44-7 score came but we are sure the Tigers were mighty happy to see it.

Go Tigers! Well done! 5-1.

Game seven : Pikeville (1A, 5-1) at Madison Central (6A, 4-1)

I am willing to bet you Pikeville scheduled this game thinking it would get itself an easy 6A victory. The old RPI-builder, right?

Who could blame them? Madison Central won all of two (2) games over ’19 AND ’20. That was before they hired one of Kentucky’s all-time head football coaches in “Whistling” Mike Holcomb. 

These two teams both played LCA this season. It is the only loss for them both.

Pikeville lost by 17. Madison Central lost by nine (9). 

We would like Pikeville in Pikeville. In Richmond; well, our opinion is a bit different.

KPG Football’s prediction: Madison Central 24, Pikeville 14

How we did: We are really proud of this prediction. Pikeville is probably the best team in the 1A classification and the likely champion at that level of competition. Madison Central is being coached by a legend.

Holcomb is doing a fabulous job. The Indians have proven to be one of the better teams at the 6A level of play.

Now a 1A team can beat a 6A team. However, a 1A team (and I don’t care how good the 1A team is) can’t beat a really good 6A team. Madison Central is 5-1 and they are legit.

They beat a game Pikeville squad 21-19. 6-1.

Game eight: Bardstown (5-0, Class 3A) at Nelson County (3-3, Class 3A)

Bardstown may be the best team in the 3A classification. Nelson County is a team competing in the 3A classification. You do the math.

KPG Football’s prediction: Bardstown 56, Nelson County 17

How we did: If you are looking for games we picked dead on the money, this is one we almost nailed. We thought Bardstown would win 56-17. They won 52-16.

When your good…you’re good! 7-1.

Game nine: St. Xavier (4-1, Class 6A) at Ryle (4-1, Class 6A)

The Ryle Raiders are tough. They are a difficult team to have to play and they rank highly in the 6A classification’s weekly top-10. You know who else is tough? Louisville St. Xavier, and they have the best offensive center in Kentucky football in Carter Guillaume. 

At the end of the day, Kevin Wallace was brought to Louisville from Bowling Green to win championships. So far, he’s not getting it done. However, this just might be his break through year, at the Louisville private school as he won multiple titles at 5A BGHS. 

KPG Football’s prediction: Louisville St. Xavier 31, Ryle 24

How we did: Those Raiders from Ryle High are tough customers. We don’t believe there is but one Kentucky 6A team better than St. Xavier this year and that is Male.

We aren’t sure St. X beats LCA. However, LCA is in the 2A classification.

We thought the game would be a TD margin between the two. It was a 10-point spread.

Neither offense played as well as we thought against the other’s defense. The final score was St. Xavier 13, Ryle 3. 8-1.

Game ten: Bowling Green (3-3, Class 5A) at South Warren (4-1, Class 5A)

This game is a huge, huge game and district seeding is riding on its outcome. Either one of these teams routinely has the requisite talent to challenge for a 5A title. We like the Spartans in this one.

KPG Football’s prediction: South Warren 26, Bowling Green 7

How we did: We pride ourselves at KPGFootball for knowing football commonwealth-wide. We are coast to coast.

The western end is a part of Kentucky we have demonstrated knowing as well as anywhere. That is why, when we picked South Warren to beat district foe and defending classification champion, Bowling Green, people should have listened.

We said the Spartans over the Purples 26-7. The final score was South Warren 36, Bowling Green 7. Nailed one of the numbers. 9-1.

Game eleven: Simon Kenton (1-4, Class 6A) at Corbin (5-0, Class 4A)

We all remember times when Simon Kenton would have beaten the almighty crap out of Corbin or any other team in the 4A classification. Well, those days aren’t today. 

Corbin maybe the betting favorite to win it all in 4A this year. Simon Kenton is an early exit in 6A. 

No team in Kentucky outside of Male and LCA have the type athletes Corbin has on its roster. We believe these hounds will hunt. 

KPG Football’s prediction: Corbin 56, Simon Kenton 14

How we did: Someone was remarking how badly Simon Kenton had played this year. We haven’t been impressed terribly which is why we picked Corbin in this match-up 56-14.

Our picking Corbin big has more to do with the fact we believe Corbin the team to beat in the 4A classification this year. Simon Kenton’s only win this year was over some team from Indiana but they are still a Class 6A team with 6A athletes.

This is another game we nearly nailed. Corbin won 56-24. 10-1.

Game twelve: Ashland Blazer (3-3, Class 3A) at Elizabethtown (3-3, Class 3A)

Ashland Blazer (AB) is the reigning champion in the 3A classification. We don’t think they have that kind of talent this year. They lost a lot to graduation.

Want to know who else lost plenty to graduation? Elizabethtown High School was hit as hard as anyone. Both of these programs find ways to win and are among the very elite programs in their class. 

AB, like Caldwell, has improved every week. They are too much for the Panthers.

KPG Football’s prediction: Ashland-Blazer 38, Elizabethtown 13

How we did: We warned one and all Ashland, Kentucky is a tough place to play. Still an E-Town program ravaged by the graduation stage from a season ago’s loss to this same team in the 3A championship game slid into Ashland and gave the boys from AB a tougher game than we thought they would.

Ashland Blazer won the replay of the ’20 title game, 35-28. We predicted it would be 38-13 with AB winning.

Still, a win is a win. 11-1.

This is Coach HB Lyon, reporting for KPGFootball, and we’re JUST CALLING IT LIKE WE SEE IT!

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