Well, we don’t know what to tell you Pikeville faithful. Our Edgar Cayce act of forecasting, almost to the numeral, the final score of the Pikeville games was impressive while it lasted but certain to end some time. As you will recall, we predicted Pikeville would beat Lynn Camp 54-0 in round one and the Panthers took it easy on the Lions. They put 49 on the board but let them score 16 or so points on the junior varsity. Oh well, we still had Pikeville in a blow out and Pikeville certainly provided a blow out. As we said last week, all championship runs have to be undertaken one game at a time and the Panthers, enter round two, 8-2, and brace for a visit from 10-1 Lynn Camp High School from Corbin, Kentucky. Corbin, like Pike County, Kentucky, is a location within the Commonwealth known to play a little football. We are going to stay on what we still believe to be a proven formula and break down this match-up by looking both backwards and forward and, at the end, we will give you our call as to how we see this resolving.
A look back…
Well, we know Pikeville won the game, ultimately, 49-16 over the Lions from Pinneville. As a result Pinneville has officially started its basketball season while it appears there is plenty of football left for Pikeville to play. The final score wasn’t an indication of the difference between the two teams as, as has customarily happened over the last part of the season, Isaac MacNamee, once again, got considerable playing time which will serve the Panthers well in the future as Roberts is a senior. Let’s just say it is wonderful so many young players are getting meaningful varsity run for their development but the luxury of playing younger players isn’t likely to continue much longer, though we believe it may be something which can happen, at least, one more week.
A look ahead…
Lynn Camp is sporting a fine 10-1 seasonal mark, after beating Phelps in round one of the playoffs 43-20. Lynn Camp’s only loss of the year was by 28 points to Williamsburg 72-44. The Wildcats have played a pretty soft schedule however as the MaxPreps Computer has them, according to its algorithm, the 108th best team in Kentucky and the 7,619th best team in the Country.
They certainly run the football at Lynn Camp as the Wildcats have gained 3,314 yards rushing on the season in scoring its 503 points versus the 198 it has surrendered. They aren’t a threat to throw the ball as the team hasn’t completed but 29 passes over its first 11 games. Dalton Cook carries the lion’s share of the load offensively as he has gained 2,495 yards this year, on 169 carries, scoring 29 rushing TDs. The second most prolific TD scorer on the ground is QB, Eric Mitchell with 11. In the game with Phelps, Eric Mitchell completed but 2 passes. However, the two completions covered 112 yards and accounted for two of the offense’s 5 TDs. Domanick Cook caught a 61 yarder for one score while Cameron Gilbert caught the other TD reception spanning 51 yards. Dalton Cook rushed the ball 15 times for the Wildcats, gaining 200 yards and scoring 3 rushing TDs, which accounts for all 5 TDs the offense tallied. Tommy Partin was called upon to attempt 5 point afters and he converted all 5.
Looking at Lynn Camp overall, it is a team which has run the ball well and dominated the teams put in front of it, except for the one time it played a really good team (not nearly as good as Pikeville) whereupon it surrendered 72 freaking points and lost by four TDs. Opponents have rushed the football against Lynn Camp for nearly 1500 yards on the year in 11 games and thrown the football for 941 yards, all of which sounds good until you consider whom they have been playing. Another aspect, which begins to factor in the playoffs, is the kicking game. While Partin is 23 of 24 on the year on PATs, he’s only attempted one three-pointer all year and missed it. Pikeville has thrown the ball effectively with both Connor Roberts and Isaac MacNamee showing the ability to fill the air with footballs. That being said, should the Panthers be too pass-happy, they might well locate Lynn Camp’s Cameron Gilbert whom has picked 5 passes on the season, of his team’s 19 interceptions, with both Nick Smith and Chase Brown snagging 3 a piece.
Taking all the above indicators into account, like last week, this will be a very hard game to predict a final outcome, although, we are confident the Panthers will prevail. The two teams have two common opponents, Pinneville and Phelps. Lynn Camp beat Pinneville by 39 (65-26) and Phelps by 23 (43-20). Pikeville beat Pinneville by 33 (49-16) and Phelps by 47 (47-0). Looking at Lynn Camp’s schedule, the hardest team it has played all year is Williamsburg. Williamsburg isn’t in Pikeville’s league, if we’re being honest, and Williamsburg dropped Lynn Camp by 28.
Now Pikeville didn’t play an opponent ranked around Lynn Camp’s 108th position in Kentucky. Pikeville played some teams much more highly regarded and a few teams held in considerably less esteem but didn’t play any team anywhere around the 108 position Commonwealth-wide where Lynn Camp is slotted. Lynn Camp didn’t play anyone anywhere nearly as highly regarded as Pikeville’s 31st position, KY-wide. However, Pikeville did play a team rated pretty closely to where Williamsburg is slotted, which is a team Lynn Camp did play. Pikeville played the 73rd ranked team in Kentucky (Hazard); a team it beat by 6. The difference between the 67th team in Kentucky (Williamsburg) and the 73rd best team in Kentucky (Hazard) according to MaxPreps.com (a regular proponent of the algorithm used to slot Kentucky teams) is very slight. So take the 28 points by which Williamsburg beat Lynn Camp and add to it the 6 points by which Pikeville beat its Williamsburg-clone, Hazard, and add three points for Pikeville playing at home and we believe Pikeville to be 37 points better than Lynn Camp. In the end, this game, much like the last, will have as lopsided a margin as Coach MacNamee elects to administer.
KPGFootball’s Prediction… PHS 51 – Lynn Camp 14
Join us next week as we look back at this game and preview the next match-up and give us a follow on Twitter @KPGFootball and subscribe to the on-line magazine by going to www.kentuckyprepgridiron.com and follow the prompts. Until next week, Panthers, this is Fletcher Long, reporting for KPGFootball, reminding all of the ballers out there to PLAY THROUGH THE WHISTLE.
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