Inside the Numbers: Allen County-Scottsville at Glasgow

Yesterday, we featured the huge match-up on Class 6A, Male at Trinity. Today, we step down a few classifications to another big-time game between two teams both highly regarded by their respective classes, and go Inside the Numbers for the game pitting Allen County-Scottsville (ACS) which travels to Glasgow, Kentucky to take on the, always tough, Scotties. ACS is presently ranked the 7th best football team in Kentucky’s 4A classification according to the AP’s most recent poll, and the Scotties are the 4th highest regarded team in the 2A classification according to the same poll. We will crunch the numbers and look at some key statistics and see if we can’t predict the winner of this match-up.

Present records…Both teams are 3-0 entering this contest. Advantage/Even:

Strength of schedule…ACS has beaten the 176th ranked football team, according to the Calpreps.com computer algorithm, Adair County 45-18; the 194th best team in Kentucky, according to the same algorithm, Barren County, 47-13; and the 126th best team in Kentucky, Greenwood, 27-7. ACS is ranked 78th in Kentucky and number 5,631 in the country in high school football by MaxPreps, and the 78th best football team in Kentucky according to the Calpreps.com algorithm.

Glasgow has beaten the 143rd ranked football team, according to the Calpreps.com computer algorithm, Russellville 51-0; the 121st best team in Kentucky, according to the same algorithm, in Bardstown 19-7; and the 191st best team in Kentucky, Fort Campbell, 37-0. Glasgow is ranked 58th in Kentucky and number 4,350 in the country in high school football by MaxPreps, and the 58th best football team in Kentucky, according to the Calpreps.com algorithm. Advantage:

Computer rankings: Oh, those nasty, impervious to bias, algorithms which seem to tell us everything nowadays. For this particular analysis we use two; one being the MaxPreps’ computer algorithm which ranks teams both in its state or commonwealth and nationally and the other we rely on is the widely publicized, Kentucky-based, Calpreps.com computer poll.

ACS: Ranked 78th in Kentucky according to MaxPreps and Calpreps.com with MaxPreps ranking ACS the 5,631st best high school football team in America.

Glasgow: Glasgow is ranked 58th in Kentucky, according to both MaxPreps and Calpreps.com, and 4,350th in the nation. Advantage…

Game statistics: ACS in its three wins has scored 119 points while surrounding 38. ACS has rushed for 671 yards, allowing 183 and passed for 326 yards while allowing 395. That is troublesome if you are an ACS fan as that represents pretty paltry offensive production considering the pastries on which the team has been feasting. Of course the case may be fairly made they are blowing teams out and, therefore, not churning out the production the team would if the first-string played longer. The Scotties have scored 107 points and allowed only 7 in three games. The Scotties have rushed for 419 yards and allowed 88 while passing for 295 yards and allowing only 195 over the three games played. While neither teams has played a world beater by any stretch of the imagination, ACS has handily beaten a poor Greenwood team, who may not be terrific, but are the best team ACS has played and are in the 5A classification. Now, though certainly not a terrific team, the best team either ACS or Glasgow has played is Bardstown, who comes in slightly ahead of Greenwood in the Calpreps.com and MaxPreps computer rankings at number 121 (to Greenwood’s 126). We don’t think the pendulum is swung to violently in either direction but we do feel it inches toward Glasgow, at least ever so slightly. Advantage:

Intangibles: Allen County-Scottsville plays in a larger classification and has a larger enrollment, which as we have before explained countless times, is a fact worthy of little to no significance in Kentucky High School Football. Allen County-Scottsville was perfectly ravaged by graduation at the end of last season and had a right nice ball club last year. We didn’t think they would be as good this year as last, and their rolling up some busters hasn’t changed our mind in the least. Color KPGFootball unimpressed. The Scotties are at home, and if we are being honest, the top of Class 2A is tougher than the top of Class 4A. While the Scotties have been feasting on pastries too, they haven’t been playing quite as deep of bottom-dweller as ACS has thus far scheduled. Historically, they tend to play better football in Glasgow then in Scottsville. We like history at KPGFootball. Advantage:

Crunching all of the above, we weighted the Scotties being so stridently ranked ahead of ACS in the respective computer polls and the fact the Scotties have a better tradition of winning football and are getting to play at home in substantiating our belief Glasgow wins this game by two or more touchdowns. Final Score Prediction:

Glasgow: 35                     ACS: 14

Well guys, this is what the tea leaves tell us. We are unimpressed with ACS largely owing to the schedule and conceded Glasgow’s schedule isn’t much better. However, the fact Glasgow has a tradition unmatched by ACS regarding playing winning football held some sway with us. Did we weigh it too heavily? Well, I suppose we shall see come tomorrow night! Either way, we can’t wait to see how this conflict resolves and it will be interesting to see whether the statistical analysis, employed here, foretells anything, at all, about the outcome. The great thing about football is; it still has to be played on the field. Thanks for joining us for Inside the Numbers.

Reporting for KPGFootball, this is Fletcher Long reminding all of you ballers out there that #WeGotUCovered and to PLAY THROUGH THE WHISTLE.