Aces likely to finish 10-0
When I was coaching middle school, there were three divisions. There were Division I middles schools for whom you received 30-quality points if you won the game. There were Division II middle schools worth 20-points per victory. There were Division III middle schools worth 10-points. Tough Division III programs had a hard time getting games with coaches adept at milking the system. The more points you had, the higher you were seeded; meaning you could spend the entire playoffs (up until the semis) at home. High School is employing a similar system. It requires more math analysis; but the net effect is the same. If you know how to schedule, you can bolster your RPI significantly. Jason Morris has proven himself a master. This is your master class. Try to learn something.HB Lyon, Scouting Director, KPGFootball
Let me start off by saying that the system as it now exists is flawed. A team gets the same multipliers (15% bump per upward classification) for playing Daviess County as it would get for scheduling Frederick Douglass, Trinity, or St. Xavier.
Beating Frederick Douglass, Trinity, or St. Xavier not even similar to beating Daviess County regarding relative difficulty. Hence, the flaw…
Jason Morris, head football coach at Owensboro Catholic knows this. Jason Morris, Athletics Director, knows this too.
Morris wears two hats. Both hats are brilliant schedulers.
There is no better scheduler than Morris in the game of high school football across Kentucky. If you want to be home for the playoffs, you should mimic what he does. To prove this we simply wind back the clock a year.
In 2022, Owensboro Catholic had the second highest RPI in the state of Kentucky competing in 2A football. This means they were home for the playoff until Lexington.
That advantage is a significant one. The Aces were still outed in the Regional Finals by Lexington Christian Academy (LCA). However, this happened in Owensboro.
At the end of the regular season, Owensboro Catholic was 7-3. Now, how does any team go 7-3 and finish with a higher RPI than 10-0 Mayfield and 10-0 Metcalfe?
You play 2-6A teams (pre-realignment) and a Class 5A team and beat all three. Once you mathematically adjust the RPI with the built-in multipliers, Voilà!
So the Aces now stand at 4-0. We will begin with what we have said on the syndicated radio segment we do with Scott Fitzgerald with WHAS out or Louisville and Kentuckiana Morning News. Owensboro Catholic is the “little team that could.”
They beat bigger teams all the time. Jason Morris may be Kentucky’s very best high-school coach. He may also have the premier staff.
Sure, some guys have won more titles. However, Morris and staff routinely do more with less than what some of the other programs boast.
We are entitled to our opinion. Our opinion is Catholic’s HFC, Jason Morris, would be an “A” hire for any program at any classification.
That aside, his scheduling is both brilliant, not as risky as it could be, and guaranteed to deliver a high RPI. Let’s take a look.
At 4-0, Morris’ Aces have beaten 5A, Apollo (Owensboro); 5A, Owensboro (Senior) High; 5A, Greenwood; and 6A, Daviess County. They will close the year with North Hardin, a 6A school.
In ’22, they beat two 5A’s and a 6A and ended the regular season with 3-losses and the commonwealth’s 2nd highest RPI. In ’23, they are undefeated, and should they remain so, they would be 10-0 with wins over two 6A’s and three 5A’s.
How does a competitor overcome that type assault on the RPI multipliers from a 2A football team? You don’t. You really can’t.
Will Owensboro Catholic finish this regular season 10-0? According to the calpreps.com computer algorithm, there is a very good chance of that.
Let me explain a few things about the algorithm. No team has ever had a 100% of winning.
Ninety-nine (99) percent is the highest it goes. Also, you can’t be a bigger favorite than 62-points. It goes no higher.
Owensboro Catholic is a 41-point favorite over Crittenden County. Owensboro Catholic is a 62-point favorite over Todd, Edmondson, and Ft. Campbell. Owensboro Catholic is an 11-point favorite to beat North Hardin on a neutral site. We will adjust that three points for the game’s being scheduled to be played in Radcliff, KY.
What are the chances Owensboro Catholic finishes 9-1? We’ll give that the 99% chance, barring significant personnel changes brought on by injury, the computer ascribes to “sure things.”
What are the chances Owensboro Catholic finishes 10-0? You would have to say between 85-90%.
Now, we said all of this to get you prepared. We believe it probable we will see some RPI rankings in very short order. They are the only rankings which count.
Owensboro is coming off a victory over a ranked 5A team, Owensboro Senior. The victory over Senior High is its second victory over an AP ranked, 5A team (Greenwood).
Against Senior High, Brady Atwell (’25 QB), completed 20 of his 32-thrown passes for 279-yards and 2-TD’s with no picks. Atwell also rushed 13 times for 101-yards with three (3) scores. Atwell had a hand in every point produced outside of PAT’s and conversions.
The Carrico brothers were likewise active. Vince Carrico (’26) had 22-stops and William “Tutt” Carrico (’25) had 8-receptions for 134-yards with a TD, 12-tackles, 1.5-TFL’s and an INT.
The point is this Catholic team looks like a runaway train. What 2A team will derail it?
We don’t know. We just know where it will all have to happen.
This is Fletcher W. Long, reporting for KPGFootball, reminding you to PLAY THROUGH THE WHISTLE!
If you enjoyed this article and wish to gain full-access to the site, then subscribe monthly to Kentucky Prep Gridiron by following the prompts!
© The information contained on this site is the copyrighted intellectual property of KPGFootball. Any unauthorized dissemination of this material without the author’s express written consent is strictly prohibited!