Trinity versus Saint Xavier at Louisville’s L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
A “Bucket List” game or moment has a distinctive meaning in the secular world. It is generally defined as something so singular or special someone wants to experience it once before he or she “kicks the bucket,” or passes. For Kentucky High School Football fans throughout Kentucky, Trinity versus Saint Xavier is such an event. I have never been so fortunate as to get to attend one and neither has “Friday Night Fletch,” and we regularly work in and repot on KHSAA football all year long. Today, we will break down this monumental, momentous, game and pick a winner.
HB Lyon, Scouting Director, “KPGFootball”
Louisville, KY: Every year these two powerhouse, 6A programs square off in the hotbed of football talent across Kentucky for both Derby City and commonwealth supremacy. These are two of the more tradition rich programs in KHSAA football history with Trinity the holder of 29-state titles, working on number 30.
Saint Xavier has won 13 KHSAA football titles, its last one coming in 2021. Trinity has won the last two (2023, 2024) titles.
Trinity has won its last 10 appearances in the state finals and 17 of its last 18. If the Shamrocks make the finals this year, they are likely winning the championship (29-4 all-time in championship games). Period!
This year Trinity enters the game 4-1. Saint Xavier is 3-1. Neither team has lost to a KHSAA football team yet. That changes this weekend.
We will break down this game and pick a winner at the end of our analysis. Here we go…
The combatants;
St. Xavier is 3-1 on the year and ranked No. 4 in KY and No. 483 in the United States of America. The Tigers have lost to the Elder Panthers (Cincinnati) 26-24. Elder is ranked 11th in Ohio and 180th in the nation with all rankings being according to MaxPreps.com and its CalPreps.com algorithm regularly employed to determine such matters.
Trinity is 4-1 on the year and ranked No. 1 in KY, No. 86th nationally. The Shamrocks lost to Archbishop Moeller (Cincinnati), 24-21 in Cincinnati. Archbishop Moeller is ranked number 1 in Ohio and number 64 in the nation with all rankings being according to MaxPreps.com and its CalPreps.com algorithm regularly employed to determine such matters.
Advantage: Trinity
The Field Generals;
Saint Xavier starts Mason Trimble (’26) at QB. Trimble is one of the top rated players at his position in his graduating class. Trimble has thrown for 548-yards and 3-TDs against 2-picks and rushed for three (3) scores and 134-yards on 31-carries.
Trinity starts Zane Johnson (’27) at QB and Johnson has started since his freshman year, snap one, game one. Johnson is in his third year at the helm of the offense. Johnson has thrown for 914-yards, so far this season, with 14-TDs against a single INT. Overall, Johnson has won 29 of the 35 games he has started with back to back 6A titles
Advantage: Trinity
The RBs;
Saint Xavier liens on Marlon Harbin, III (’26). Harbin is a versatile and athletic weapon capable of contributing to the team’s efforts in a variety of ways and phases. Harbin has gained 239-yards in 31-carries with 6-rushing TDs and caught 16-passers for 193-yards and another two (2) scores through the air.
Harbin is the team’s leading scorer at 13.5-per game. Harbin has scored this year on the ground, through the air, and via KO return.
Harbin, with his INT, is a three phase guy, something you don’t see in KHSAA 6A ball very often. By the way, playing for St. Xavier is “big time” 6A football.
Trinity counters with Jamarion Berry (’27). Berry is the leading rusher, gaining 401-yards in the first five games in 68-carries, six (6) of which were for scores. Berry is the club’s leading scorer, averaging 8.4-points per game.
Advantage: Saint Xavier
The Place Kickers, a phase of the game which might well determine the outcome here;
Saint Xavier has PK Matthew Burt (’26). Burt is reliable. Burt is a perfect 15 for 15 in PATs; but, Burt has yet to try a field goal this season. This week may be the week to break out that part of his arsenal. Every point this week is necessary and important in a game like this one.
Trinity counters in the kicking game with Christopher Kehdy (’27). Kehdy is a solid PK. Kehdy has made 95% of his PAT attempts (20/21) and is three (3) for five (5) on FGs. That extra bit of arsenal, the fact Kehdy is a proven and serious threat to provide his team three (3) points on drives stalled in the red zone, may be just the advantage Trinity needs to emerge from this game victorious.
Advantage: Trinity
Defenses;
For St. Xavier, Brennen Garr (’26) and Koreu Tutt, Jr. (’27) cause the most havoc in the opposing backfield. The pair have made eight (8) of the team’s nine (9) QB sacks on the year and nine (9) of the team’s 16-TFLs. David Hemsell (’26) and Marlon Harbin, III (’26) have the ball club’s two INTs.
For Trinity, Luke Vize is leading the defense with 33-tackles, a TFL, a sack and a FR. KeAnthony Calloway (’26) has three (3) TFLs and a half a sack while Myles Howze has picked three (3) of the team’s eight (8) INTs. Elijah Burns-Crump (’27) and Sonny Bratcher Gray (’26) each have a pick-six a piece.
Advantage: Even
Intangibles;
For St. Xavier, Lucan Shelton has caught 13-passes for 123-yards and the only other aerial TD for the team this year in addition to two (2) TDs receiving caught by Harbin. The defense better keep an eye on him as the tendency is to track Harbin all over the field allowing Shelton to sneak up on teams.
For Trinity, Cross Watson (’26), Jayce Duvall (’27), and Kaleb Warner (’27) have caught 34 of the team’s 51-receptions for 636 of the teams 912-receiving yards and nine (9) of the 14-TD receptions.
Advantage: Trinity
Coaching;
For Saint Xavier, Kevin Wallace has won six (6) titles and entered this year 361-126 all time. He is fourth in the commonwealth in career victories and climbing. This is his final season as Wallace has announced he will retire at year’s end. His kids will fight “to the death” in this game for the school and their beloved coach.
Jay Cobb for Trinity is an old hand in the coaching industry with 28 or so years experience in the profession. Cobb has stops at South Hopkins (1984-87), Webster County (1989-92), Knott County Central (1993-97), Somerset (1998-2008) and Campbellsville (2010-11).
Cobb had been the defensive coordinator at Trinity since 2014 before being named head football coach in 2021. Cobb is 39-18 in his four prior seasons prior to the present one and has made the semis, in 6A, three (3) times (2021, ’23, ’24) and won back to back 6A KHSAA titles (’23, ’24).
Cobb has been around quite a few title teams over his seasons on Trinity’s football staff. Cobb will shrink away from no one.
Slight advantage: St. Xavier; because Wallace steps down at the end of the year (sentimental value)
Our Call;
If there was ever a game where the third phase may be the difference; this game, played in front of this type crowd, may be that game. On paper, Trinity should win this game by six to nine points. Games aren't played on paper. We are picking the Shamrocks but not by the margin we called on the podcast Cleats 2 Whistle (which won't be online until tomorrow but was taped last night). We like Trinity in this game to win 28-24.
This is Friday Night Fletch, reporting for KPGFootball, reminding you to PLAY THROUGH THE WHISTLE!
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