This week’s ‘Dirty Dozen,’ we pick the outcome in 12-Friday night Big Games. @minguabeefjerky @PrepSpin @KyHighFootball @MaxPreps

We used to do this throughout the season. Then the pandemic made it impossible to do because, from week to week, one would be handicapping games which never got played. 

We may be idiots but we decided to renew this series and, this week, we picked another 12-games we expect will be played this weekend, come heck or high water, as people say. We will check back after Friday night’s action to see how we did. 

Incidentally, we went 11-1 last week. It will be interesting to see how well or poorly we do this week.

Here is this week’s version of the “dirty dozen” football games to be played this Friday night and who will win and what the likely score will be. Good luck everyone!

Game one: Breathitt, 0-4 (2A) at Middlesboro, 5-0 (2A)

Photo: Brendon Miller, BSN

I want to believe Breathitt County can go to Middlesboro and come out on top in spite of the Bobcats being 0-4 on the season. Many of these boys were on the roster in ’19 when the Bobcats went to Middlesboro and ran the Yellow Jackets right off the field (57-7).

Unfortunately, this isn’t that Breathitt team. In fairness to Middlesboro, this year’s 5-0 squad, ranked No. 4 in this week’s AP top-ten, isn’t the ’19 version of itself either.

We want to be very clear here…Breathitt has the talent to go down there and beat this Middlesboro team. The Bobcats have won three districts in a row, though they didn’t join a district with Middlesboro until two years ago.

However, with O’Hara out for the remainder of the year with injury and everything else taken into account; it would be foolish for us to pick the Bobcats Friday night. We will go with Middlesboro but, if we miss this week, this might well be the “miss.”

KPGFootball’s call: Middlesboro 48, Breathitt 21

Dixon

Game two: Magoffin, 3-1 (3A) at Belfry, 0-5 (3A)

Okay, let’s just get it out of the way; Magoffin is 3-1 this year and Belfry is winless (0-5). We know the tables are generally reversed but things are what they are.

You’ll have to forgive Magoffin fans for believing they might have a chance to kill the “Big Red District 8 Dragon” which is Belfry. I wonder when was the last time Belfry lost a game inside the 8th-District?

Well, it won’t happen this week either. However, the margin won’t be nearly what it has before been. We like the Pirates but not by the margin we usually would project in this matchup.

KPGFootball’s call: Belfry 31, Magoffin County 27

Game three: Bourbon County, 2-2 (4A) at Ashland Blazer, 2-3 (3A)

Ashland Blazer (“AB”) is the reigning 3A State Champions. Last year, AB (as we refer to them around the magazine) beat the heck out of Bourbon in Paris, Kentucky. We were at the game so we saw the entire ordeal.

Teams like to pretend there is no such thing as graduation. Trinity is suffering from that right now.

The reality is stars graduate and they are often difficult to impossible to replace. Go ask Danville how easy it was to replace Dmaurie VanCleave after Danville won it all in ’17.

This game will not be nearly as much a blow-out as last year’s version. In fact, if we were in Paris Kentucky again we might be tempted to take the Colonels.

However, Ashland, Kentucky is a tough place to win a football game. This is true regardless of how many former big-time stars walked across the graduation stage last Spring.

KPGFootball’s call: Ashland Blazer 21, Bourbon 14

Game four: South Warren, 3-1 (3A) at Central, 3-2 (4A)

There are plenty of 5A teams on the western end of Kentucky which (frankly) aren’t very good. We decline to give any examples as we aren’t here to bad-mouth programs. You know who you are.

Unfortunately for Central High (Lou.), South Warren is not among the western 5A patsy-pals. South Warren can flat-out ball.

The Spartans stand a real chance of following up Bowling Green (Senior) High’s 5A hardware with some of its own. We like the Spartans. We don’t believe it will be very close.

KPGFootball’s call: South Warren 28, Central High (Lou.) 3

Game five: Glasgow, 4-1 (3A) at Greenwood, 5-0 (5A)

This might knock you over with a feather but the Greenwood Dragon are really, really good this year. They are playing a tough customer in Glasgow.

Glasgow is a 3A team but one of those teams which transcend its classification. Greenwood is used to getting the crap beat out of them but they have plenty of athletes from whom to choose and they have really put it together so far.

This is another game we might choose differently if only it was in Bowling Green. Of course, if “its” and “buts” were “candy” and “nuts” we’d all have a Merry Christmas.

KPGFootball’s call: Greenwood 31, Glasgow 28

Game six: Logan County, 3-2 (4A) at Hopkinsville, 2-3 (4A)

In life, one is better just admitting when one is wrong as opposed to making a ton of excuses. We thought Logan County would really struggle this year.

We were wrong. It appears Coach Adler is some kind of fine football coach. This is a fact about which we were previously suspicious. This season, so far, confronts us with irrefutable evidence, at least in our minds.

Hopkinsville is planning a big celebration to honor Coach Craig Clayton logging his 300th-win. Big 300 came against his own alma mater when Hoptown beat up on Caldwell County a couple weeks ago.

Last week’s win in the Bragging Rights game with Christian County ran Clayton’s win total to 301. This week, the Tigers and the Cougars are likely playing for home field advantage over the course of the first two rounds of the upcoming KHSAA playoffs.

Hopkinsville better start thinking less about celebrations and more about Logan County. Those Cougars have proven themselves quite a handful.

KPGFootball’s call: Logan County 24, Hoptown 21

Game seven: Perry County Central, 3-1 (4A) at Letcher County Central, 3-1 (4A)

Photo: Brendon Miller, BSN

No one can argue Mark Dixon is doing a whale of a job at Perry County Central. Of course, when you get to the Letcher/Johnson Central portion of the district slate you have gotten to the District 8 heavyweights portion of the schedule.

Junior Matthews, the head coach at Letcher County, has them playing really well too. Here is Dixon’s biggest problem…Matthews has way better football players on his roster than Dixon’s chess pieces, at least this year. Coaching, alone, makes overcoming that particular advantage a tough task.

KPGFootball’s call: Letcher 31, Perry County Central 14

Game eight: Paducah Tilghman, 1-3 (3A) at Henderson County, 3-1 (6A)

We believed Paducah Tilghman was one of the better 3A teams in Kentucky preseason. The “Blue Tornado” has looked pretty good at times but they seem to come out on the short end of the scoreboard stick a lot. Their schedule has been a bear.

This game will be no different. Beating the Colonels from Henderson, Kentucky is a pretty tough task for any 3A football program.

Henderson County is a ranked 6A football team which competes in the 1st-District and Paducah has a win already over a District 1 team when they bested McCracken County in the season opener. Can lightening strike twice? Not bloody likely.

KPGFootball’s call: Henderson County 35, Paducah Tilghman 21

Game nine: Pikeville, 5-0 (1A) at Lexington Christian, 5-0 (2A)

You can throw out that 1A, 2A crap. Both of these teams are among the best football teams competing KHSAA football in any of its six (6) classifications.

Both teams are undefeated. Both teams boast numerous players with college offers and even Division 1, college offers. Both teams have tradition and are coached by two of the best staffs in the high school game.

We like the Eagles in this one. We aren’t sure there is a team in Kentucky, not named Louisville Male, that can beat LCA in a football game. Goodness knows LCA has beaten about everyone else this season.

KPGFootball’s call: LCA 31, Pikeville 14

Game ten: Boyle County, 4-1 (4A) at North Hardin, 1-4 (6A)

We believe Boyle County may be the best team in the 4A classification. We believe they have a tremendous opportunity to win the championship in that classification for the second consecutive year.

North Hardin is a disaster area. They have been very good over the previous few years but they are NOT very good right now.

Boyle will do what they have done all year outside of the visit from LCA. They are going to beat the stuffings out of North Hardin.

KPGFootball’s call: Boyle 48, North Hardin 6

Game eleven: Estill County, 4-1 (3A) at Rockcastle County, 3-2 (3A)

The Engineers have it rolling this year and have gotten off to a 4-1 start. Rockcastle County, a.k.a. “The Rock,” will turn your hat around mister!

Estill has beaten Powell, a 5A South Laurel team, Dayton, and Harrison County while losing its only game to COVID-19, a team no one appears able to beat. The Rock has bested LaRue, the best team either of the two have played. We like Rockcastle in this one.

KPGFootball’s call: Rockcastle 21, Estill County 17

Game twelve: Knott County Central, 1-3 (2A) at Morgan County, 2-3 (2A)

This game maybe a battle for who gets the “other” first round, home game as the number two seed in Class 2A’s 7th-District. Knott County has the best QB/WR tandem in the district in Kizer Sloan/Logan Smith. Morgan County has one of the best RB’s in the district in Jordan Sexton.

Sexton has gained 551-yards in 75-carries with 10-rushing TDs in 4-games (one of the losses was to COVID-19). Both of these teams have to beat Breathitt; but Breathitt appears really down and both these two teams look much better than they have before been. We are taking Morgan County in a really close ballgame.

KPGFootball’s call: Morgan County 35, Knott County Central 31

This is Coach HB Lyon, reporting for KPGFootball, and we’re JUST CALLING IT LIKE WE SEE IT!

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