We at KPGFootball aren’t really fans of the KHSAA’s RPI formula. One reason is the CalPreps.com, also used by MaxPreps.com, already utilizes an algorithm which identifies both America’s and Kentucky’s best High School football teams with uncanny accuracy. We are of the opinion the RPI, which is supposed to identify the best high school teams in each classification, isn’t really doing that.
We believe the biggest flaw is the enhancement for playing teams in a higher classifications. Under the present formula, a Class A team is well served by playing a struggling program from a high school with a significantly larger enrollment.
For instance, if you’re Pikeville, you are better off scheduling Warren Central, who is 4A and winless in its last 46-consecutive games than playing either Hazard or Painstville, who are both Class A ball clubs who are way better at playing football than Warren Central.
Under the last posted RPI, when it locked in after the regular season, the following were the top-15 teams in Kentucky regardless of classification…1. Kentucky Country Day (.81404), 2. LCA (.77714), 3. Pikeville (.76144), 4. Mayfield (.75316), 5. Somerset (.75279), 6. Boyle (.73034), 7. Male (.71635), 8. Johnson Central (.70583), 9. Covington Catholic (.70414), 10. Bell County (.70365), 11. Holy Cross (Lou.) (.69857), 12. Paintsville (.69460), 13. Caldwell County (.69128), 14. Williamsburg (.68442), and 15. North Hardin (.67794). Of these fifteen teams, Class 1A has 5 teams, Class 2A has 4 teams, Class 3A has 1 team, Class 4A has 2 teams, Class 5A has 1 team, and Kentucky’s largest classification Class 6A, has 2 teams neither of which ended up the classification’s State Champion (Trinity). Belfry, the State Football Champion in the 3A classification, isn’t in the top-15 either.
Under this method, the toughest classification this year was Class 1A. Classes 3A and 5A were the worst classifications, each one garnering a single representative each. At KPGFootball, we don’t believe this to be true.
Under the CalPreps.com/MaxPreps.com algorithm, the following are Kentucky’s top-15 football teams…
Under the algorithm we contend to be way more accurate regarding picking Kentucky’s best football teams, regardless of classification, the breakdown is as follows: 1 team in Class A, 2 teams in Class 2A, 1 Team in Class 3A, 2 teams in Class 4A, 4 teams in Class 5A, 5 teams in Class 6A. All classifications’ State Champions are represented here.
Under this scenario, Classes 6 and 5A were the two toughest leagues, followed by Classes 2 and 4A, then Class A and Class 3A. Does anyone disagree that this provides a much more accurate picture of the status of Kentucky High School football than the picture painted by the RPI?
Take the KHSAA’s top fifteen and match them up with the MaxPreps/CalPreps final top-fifteen…how many games will the KHSAA win? Will KCD beat Covington Cath., will Lexington Christian beat Trinity, will Pikeville beat Male, etc., etc.? You don’t have to answer out-loud, just ask yourself in your own head, that place where you are more likely to be honest.
Here’s the bottom-line; we were already using an algorithm which was already ranking Kentucky’s high school football teams, top to bottom. It was doing this with frightening accuracy. I believe we should just use it to seed the respective classification’s brackets as opposed to the KHSAA RPI system so fraught with error replete with a glaring weakness of the out of classification enhancement.
For what it is worth, that’s our two-cents worth.
This is Coach HB Lyon, reporting for KPGFootball, and we’re JUST CALLING IT LIKE WE SEE IT!
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