Grading last week’s performance on our picks…

Even with two Covid-19 cancellations out of our 16-picks, KPGFootball still went 12-2 on the fourteen games which were played. We are 22-3 over the past two weeks.

Well, we went 10-1 two weeks ago and have had a strong season picking winners and projecting scores this season. Still, into every life a little rain must fall.

How did we do the second weekend in October? Well, let’s see!

Game one: Lexington Christian at Frederick Douglass…

Here is what we predicted:

I suppose it should matter to us that LCA is a 2A team and Douglass is a highly regarded 5A squad. It doesn’t.

I suppose it should matter the game is a home game for Douglass in what is being dubbed, “The Battle for Lexington.” That doesn’t matter to us either.

Simply put, as good and talented as Frederick Douglass’s roster is, and they’re jokingly referred to around Kentucky as “Frederick Douglass University” because it is laden with division one college talent…we believe LCA has the most talented group of juniors in Kentucky, bar none!

This appears to be LCA’s year. This game figures to be a “pick ’em” point spread-wise.

KPGFootball prediction: LCA 28, Frederick Douglass 27

Here is what happened:

Frederick Douglass couldn’t have made us look any worse. Talk about sending a message about doubting the Broncos, wow! We may have been drinking a bit too much of the LCA cool-aide. LCA will have a chance to get back in our good graces in the upcoming Somerset game but this past Friday night was an epic fail.

Frederick Douglass 40- LCA 6, 0-1

Here’s what we predicted:

Game two: South Laurel at Mercer County in the “Little Caesars Ft. Harrod Bowl“…

The boys from Harrodsburg, Kentucky are known to be “tough customers.” This year isn’t too different though they were better last year than this. In spite of this, they are way too much for 5A South Laurel especially as the host of this bowl game. If you want to enjoy a contest, better wait until the second half of the first quarter to visit the concessions stand.

Mercer County big here. The clock figures to be running either by half or shortly after the 3rd-quarter commences.

KPGFootball prediction: Mercer County 55, South Laurel 7

Here is what happened:

Thanks Mercer for coming through for us.

Mercer County 42, South Laurel 18, 1-1

Here is what we predicted:

Game three: Bourbon County at Anderson County

The coaching staff at Bourbon County under Dave Jones has done a remarkable job at Bourbon County clawing back to respectability. Ashland Blazer showed them the Colonels aren’t there yet, but they are getting closer. Parker Estes is an All-State candidate at the TE spot and is a really good looking prospect.

Anderson County doesn’t figure to win a game this year. The Bearcats squandered its best chance dropping the game to Harrison County on September 18. They still boast the best DE in Kentucky in Darion Dearinger who every team just runs away from but are still unable to avoid. As for many of the other Bearcat defenders, they look confused about what the objective is out there much of the time.

KPGFootball prediction: Bourbon County 42, Anderson County 28

Here is what happened:

Well, a winless season and Anderson County being the worst team in Kentucky in the 4A classification in spite of having one of Kentucky’s very best players is looking more and more likely as the year goes along.

Bourbon County 41, Anderson County 21, 2-1

Here is what we predicted:

Game four: Henderson County at Appollo…

Henderson dropped its opener to a Hoptown team many believed would be pretty good in 2020. Then Hoptown went out and dropped a crap-stack in the middle of Murray, Kentucky at Calloway. Now, we don’t know what to think of Hopkinsville or of Henderson County.

Coming into the year, Apollo (Owensboro) hired well in getting John Edge to coach its football team. Logan Weedman and Parker Bates are much ballyhooed prospects who Apollo seems incapable of cashing in on, at least in the “wins” column. Apollo did beat a Meade County team which can be tough (and can also be inconsistent) and had some favorable moments the next week against McCracken, the class of that district.

This game will be closer than most people will predict. We still like the visiting Colonels.

KPGFootball prediction: Henderson County 28, Apollo 21

Here is what happened:

We thought this game would be tight and it was. We had it being a 7-point margin and it was a 5-point margin. Can’t do much better than what we did here.

Henderson County 19, Apollo 14, 3-1

Here is what we predicted:

Game five: East Carter at Ashland Blazer…

Not much can be said here other than the wrong member of the “Carter” family is headed to Ashland, Kentucky to give the Blazers much of a game. Come to think of it, we aren’t sure West Carter could handle these guys. We’re big fans of Blazer and think they may well win the 3A Kentucky championship this year.

Blazer will run the clock here.

KPGFootball prediction: Ashland-Blazer 55, East Carter 10

Here is what happened:

We nearly hit this right on the number. We said Ashland Blazer would run the clock here and they did. Predictions like this and the one above is why we are who we are.

Ashland Blazer 54, East Carter 7, 4-1

Here is what we predicted:

Game six: McCracken County at Bowling Green Senior High…

Both of these rosters boast some of the best talent in Kentucky. BG and HFC, Mark Spader, beat St. Xavier 14-0 to open the year, skated by PRP, and then lost a pivotal district contest to South Warren, 10-7. The St. Xavier win sounds impressive but St. Xavier is winless this year.

We don’t care who St. X has played. “You are your record,” as people are fond of saying. The teams you schedule are on you.

McCracken pasted Mayfield. The cardinals are historically tough at any level of play, though they are Class 2A. Mayfield is a team which has beaten the Mustangs (historically) more times than not. This game is another “toss-up” from a perspective of handicapping.

We like the Mustangs.

KPGFootball prediction: McCracken County 21, Bowling Green Senior High 17

Here is what happened:

Much like LCA, we have been drinking a bit much of the McCracken cool-aide this season. Won’t happen again. Bowling Green ran them off the field. Didn’t see that happening.

Bowling Green 28, McCracken 12, 4-2

Here’s what we predicted:

Game seven: Knox Central at Corbin…

Knox Central has played well this year and boast a great one-two punch in the backfield with Seth Huff and senior, Ethan Mills at RB. The Bourbon County staff couldn’t stop singing Mills’s praises when KPGFootball saw them a few weeks ago.

That said, division one college scouts are way more impressed with the talent on the Corbin roster than anything playing high school ball in neighboring Barbourville, Kentucky. Logan Smith, 2021 OL, is a punishing, athletic, and special player to have along any team’s front.

KPGFootball prediction: Corbin 35, Knox Central 21

Here is what happened:

Here’s one we hit on at least one of the team’s numbers. Knox Central had a chance to show it was legit and completely blew it.

Corbin 34, Knox Central 7, 5-2

Here is what we predicted:

Game eight: Bryan Station at GRC…

Coming into the year, we all thought George Rogers Clark would likely win District 8. We aren’t saying they won’t, but at 0-3, it is safe to say they aren’t as good looking today as they looked to us preseason. If they are to win District 8, they better win Friday night at home against District foe, Bryan Station. Unfortunately, they won’t.

KPGFootball prediction: Bryan Station 28, George Rogers Clark 10

Here is what happened:

We thought the two teams were 14-points apart and they were 18-points apart. Still, another game we came close to hitting right on the nose.

Bryan Station 35, GRC 21, 6-2

Here is what we predicted:

Game nine: Caldwell at Glasgow…

The “Scotties” are perennially tough. This year is no different. Caldwell is a team which appears to get better and better as the year progresses. The problem with this year’s version of the Tigers from Princeton is which team is showing up when it travels to Glasgow, KY Friday night? Will is be the Tigers who got creamed and looked completely and offensively inept (plus turnover prone) when it went to Hopkinsville, Kentucky September 19th or the team which nearly upended Mayfield in Mayfield, Kentucky this past Friday? We don’t know; however, we believe Glasgow has the ability to beat any team which exits the bus.

This game figures to be a tight one. We like the “Scotties,” but could easily lose this one if the Tigers can find enough ways to let All-State candidate, Baron Wells, touch the football. Wells is a TD-machine and can hurt any team from a variety of different ways.

KPGFootball prediction: Glasgow 28, Caldwell County 24

Here is what happened:

Cancelled for Covid-19. Still 6-2

Here is what we predicted:

Game ten: Christian County at Greenwood

We were one of the first to jump on the “Christian County is back” bandwagon when they went to Madisonville September 11 and came away with victory. Then last Friday night happened. Then, Madisonville North-Hopkins lost to Hopkins County Central 40-35. Worse yet, they lost to “The Storm” at home.

County has been off in quarantine land and haven’t played a football game since September 11, which will be pretty close to a month ago once the 9th arrives. How much “rust” will the Colonels experience and what have they been doing to “get better” the last month? Guess we will find out Friday night.

Greenwood is 4-0 and have beaten both Logan County and Union County. Those are two teams which are, generally, pretty tough outs. Christian County’s L’Ray Coleman is a 240-pound, often overlooked and under-appreciated superstar we could see getting a D-1 scholarship to play in college somewhere. Coleman is an “off the radar” guy presently.

Coleman aside, we like the Gators in this one, largely because of the rust factor. Oh yeah, Greenwood is also at home. We call that the “bus factor.”

KPGFootball prediction: Greenwood 28, Christian County 14

Here is what happened:

Greenwood was rolling in the game and then completely lost its composure at the end and nearly let the Colonels come back and beat them in the 4th-Q.

Greenwood 25, Christian County 24, 7-2

Here is what we predicted:

Game eleven: Clay County at Letcher County Central…

Okay, who, besides us, has been really impressed with Letcher this season? Who, besides us, has been underwhelmed with Clay County’s seasonal performance thus far? Letcher will run the clock on the boys from Manchester, in our humble opinion, in Whitesburg, Kentucky Friday night. We would be of the same opinion if the game were being played in Manchester, for the record.

KPGFootball prediction: Letcher County Central 43, Clay County 0

Here is what happened:

Covid-19 cancellation, 7-2

Here is what we predicted:

Game twelve: Owensboro at Owensboro Catholic…

Any of you who go out and pick the Red Devils to roll here don’t know much about this rivalry specifically or football generally. Coach Fallon has never; NEVER, beaten Catholic at Catholic. We believe that changes this year. Hey, nothing last forever.

We believe Catholic may have the best coaching staff in Kentucky. I swear to you, if you saw what their players looked like in street clothes, particularly upfront, you would never give them much chance to beat anyone, much less the Red Devils from across town who have some of the best talent in the commonwealth.

Somehow, year after year, Catholic is winning tons of games, beating or playing with teams it shouldn’t, and challenging for the 2A, Regional Title. They are in contention for the whole enchilada yearly.

We will be the first to admit at KPGFootball, we didn’t think much of the Aces’ chances in 2020. We weren’t alone.

They were picked to finish second (we picked them 3rd in the district we are ashamed to say), preseason, in a district they own. However, that being said, they have dismantled both Todd County Central and McClean and have many of the same pundits, us included, wondering aloud, “Are they good enough to get to the semi-state, and by Mayfield, in a regional final?

Gavin Wimsatt is the real deal and Kentucky’s top regarded dual-threat QB and athlete and Austin Gough is someone KPGFootball believes to be Kentucky’s elite and definitive player, Kentucky-wide at the ILB position. Both prospects are wracking up D-1 offers every time one looks either’s way.

Sorry, Catholic; coaching can bridge many gaps but this one looks (to us) to be too wide to bridge successfully. Catholic will make a game of it.

KPGFootball prediction: Owensboro Senior High 35, Owensboro Catholic 28

Here is what happened:

We may be the only publication in Kentucky who thought this would be a competitive game. The two teams were 7-7 at the half. Owensboro came out the second half and pulled away a little but, still, the game was pretty much what we thought it would be.

Owensboro Senior 28, Owensboro Catholic 14, 8-2

Here is what we predicted:

Game thirteen: Martin County at Shelby Valley…

We don’t believe Shelby Valley is as good this year as last. Their performance, to date, would support this belief. Shelby Valley is 3-1 but lost to West Carter 53-14 on October 1. Losing to West Carter is no shame, they are really good, but 53-14? Can’t get beat like that and be taken very seriously on the commonwealth, 2A, stage.

However, the Wildcats are plenty good enough to handle a Martin County team, in Pike County Friday night. Martin County is 3-1; but that one loss was 52-8 to Magoffin County.

Martin letting Phelps (1A) score 40 on them in the opener, and beating a winless Bath County team 14-10, didn’t stir much confidence in us they win this game. A four-point win over a winless team doesn’t make the résumé pop.

KPGFootball prediction: Shelby Valley 43, Martin County 17

Here is what happened:

Martin County made a game effort here and the margin what we predicted but we still picked the winner.

Shelby Valley 49, Martin County 36, 9-2

Here is what we predicted:

Game fourteen: Butler County at Todd County Central…

Coming into the year, we weren’t impressed with the Rebels prospects (Todd County). As they were picked to finish 5th in-district, preseason, behind Friday’s opponent, Butler County (picked 4th), our being doubtful about the team’s prospects was something shared by many of media pundits around the commonwealth. Well, between Catholic and Todd County we have been shown we don’t know much at all about Class 2A, District 2.

Todd County’s opening win over Hopkins County Central got “sexier” last Friday night when Central knocked off Class 4A semifinalist from 2019, North-Hopkins. Todd County making a game of the match-up with Hancock County, this past Friday night in Elkton, was also impressive. Translation…the Rebels are dangerous to have to play.

Okay, Rebels, we’re sorry for disrespecting you and we are going to pick you to win Friday night.

KPGFootball prediction: Todd County Central 43, Butler County 21

Here is what happened:

First year head coach Robbins had to win this game for the Rebels. He has the team playing well and we here he isn’t getting the support from the community that he appears to deserve. He has the Rebels playing well so far. Todd didn’t win as big as we thought going in, but they did win and that is the only thing which matters in the end.

Todd County 29, Butler County 22, 10-2

Here is what we predicted:

Game fifteen: Prestonsburg at West Carter…

Just who in 2A is playing any better than West Carter’s Comets? Leetavious Cline, RB, is pushing for “Mr. Football” consideration and All-District returning QB, Orry Perry, is also pulling the right levers.

Defensively, there are some definite stalwarts. Dylan Roe has been killing it (24-tackles, over his three games, with 7-tackles for loss, 1.5 QB-sacks, a forced fumble “FF,” and two fumble recoveries “FR”). Gavin Gibson leads the team so far with 2.5 QB-sacks and Isaac Bond has 25-stops, 3-TFLs, a sack, a FF, and 2 FRs. Gage Leadingham leads the team with two-interceptions.

West Carter will beat hapless Prestonsburg as badly as they wish to run its record to 5-0.

KPGFootball prediction: West Carter 63, Prestonsburg 0

Here is what happened:

West Carter is hot and has some of the best talent in the classification. They win hugely.

West Carter 58, Prestonsburg 7, 11-2

Here is what we predicted:

Game sixteen: Madison Southern at Woodford County…

Woodford County’s best days are still ahead. Like, as in, not this year but certainly in the next three or so. Freshman transfer from Hopkinsville, Kentucky Andrew Nason has been getting considerable varsity run which will payoff for him, big-time in the future. We like him at KPGFootball and think him among the top 5 safeties in his graduating class pretty easily. Coach Johnson’s charges made a game showing against a Franklin County team we believe may challenge for the title in 4A.

Madison Southern’s only win is against East Jessamine, but they made a game of both Pulaski County and Collins, both of whom are considered way above the midline in the 5A classification. We like Madison Southern here but it will be a good game and could really go either way.

KPGFootball prediction: Madison Southern 24, Woodford County 14

These are our predictions of the sixteen (16) games we decided to feature. Friday night’s schedule suggests these games are ready for play this coming weekend. How many of them get played? That is anyone’s guess. We were 10-1 last week and hoping to keep up the “hot hand.”

Here is what happened:

Coach Dennis Johnson has the guys at Woodford County playing well and they made a nice showing here. We thought the margin would be 10-points. It was 2-points, but Madison Southern still won the game.

Madison Southern 29, Woodford County 27, 12-2

This is Coach HB Lyon, reporting for KPGFootball, and we’re JUST CALLING IT LIKE WE SEE IT!

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